...Monopoly Surveillance Contracts Blamed for Nigeria’s Falling Oil Output

......Decentralization Could Boost Nigeria’s Oil Output Beyond 2 Million bpd

Nigeria has spent trillions of naira on pipeline security contracts given to a few individuals. Despite this spending, crude oil production has not improved. It's no doubt that the loss of crude oil is due to collaboration between some officials at NNPCL and the monopolise surveillance contractors.

The federal government needs to understand that only decentralization can stop crude oil theft. Monopolies have allowed oil theft to thrive. But when control is spread out, it becomes much harder for thieves to succeed.

Imagine a security contractor destroying the pipelines they are meant to protect, just to make money from it. This is not new. The Managing Director of Abili Integrated Services said on national TV that “It is now an open secret that Tantita Security Services deploy people to their locations of interest, vandalize the pipeline, take pictures and videos, then run to the authorities and present themselves as the only solution to the problem they intentionally created for their selfish gains.”

Nigeria has fallen short of meeting its OPEC quota of 1.5 million barrels per day, even though the country has the capacity to produce over 2.5 million barrels per day.

A few days ago, national newspapers reported that Nigeria missed its OPEC production quota for the ninth month in a row. In April 2026, Nigeria averaged 1.49 million barrels per day, slightly below the 1.5 million bpd allocation.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), Nigeria produced 1,488,540 barrels per day in April. Including condensates, total daily oil output was 1.66 million barrels.

April’s production was better than March, which saw 1.38 million bpd. This is a 7.9 percent increase month-on-month. Including condensates, total output rose from 1.55 million bpd in March to 1.66 million bpd in April.

The latest production data from OPEC contradicts earlier NNPCL claims at the National Assembly roundtable meeting that output reached 1.8 million bpd, raising doubts about sustainability and field performance.

In 2025, Nigeria only met or slightly exceeded its OPEC quota in January, June, and July. Most of the year, production was below the target. 

The Nigerian government should decentralize pipeline surveillance contracts. This could increase production to over 2 million bpd and ensure justice and fairness by including Niger Delta stakeholders and host communities, promoting peace and national security.